The alternative to becoming an epidemiologist is to assume the worst and find investments that can ride it out. We also know that the central banks are willing to do whatever it takes and more to keep the financial system functioning, something that had rightly worried many investors. After doing $2 trillion, the next $2 trillion will be much easier to agree upon. We know that governments are willing to step up. In the face of all this uncertainty, why is the market up so much from last week’s low? Well, two other uncertainties have been resolved. “The question is what happens between July 20.” If there’s no vaccine, the virus could disrupt the global economy for years. “I don’t think the next three months is the question,” Dr. But he points out that efforts have been under way to develop vaccines against other coronaviruses such as SARS and forms of the common cold for years, with no success. Medical staff treat a Covid-19 patient in an intensive care unit at the San Raffaele hospital in Milan.ĭirector of British charity Wellcome Trust and a board member of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, says if everything goes well, the Moderna vaccine the group is financing will be available next year. On the other hand, several possible cures are being tested, which might make Covid-19 much less serious, and widespread infection less worrying.
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At least for now, few Western governments have the testing capacity or the willingness to restrict freedoms previously taken for granted. A South Korea-style program of mass testing and quarantining might prevent such a repeat, but have to stay in place for a long time. The pattern of previous epidemics typically involves a second wave of infections, and sometimes a third, some months after the first. But they do nothing to answer the question of whether restrictions will have to be reintroduced later. Other investors are watching the figures, so markets are likely to take the news well, and better figures will help answer the question of how long the lockdown needs to go on. “Investors make terrible epidemiologists yet everything going on with markets right now depends on projections about the disease,” saidĬhief global strategist at fund manager Barings.Įven if we had access to reliable figures, should a downturn in cases, hospitalizations or deaths give investors confidence? In the short term, yes. death toll could be as much as 100,000 to 240,000 from the coronavirus pandemic, even with mitigation efforts. Deborah Birx presented data Tuesday projecting the U.S. If cases are being passed on within the home to extended families even after lockdown, a country with large family groups such as Italy may have very different patterns of infections to a city like New York.ĭr. Even then, much will depend on the details of the lockdowns. If the Italian lockdown can be shown to have worked already, that will give hope that similar measures elsewhere will bear fruit in a similar amount of time. But the daily change in new cases in Italy has been decelerating but picked up again Wednesday. The numbers move around a lot, and it is far too early to be sure it is a trend. Many investors have taken heart in recent days from what looks like a slowdown in Italy, the first major virus hot spot outside China to go into lockdown. Even numbers of deaths are ambiguous, with some countries (Italy) reporting every death of a patient who had Covid-19, even if they died of something else some countries reporting only deaths in hospitals (U.K.) and some attributing deaths to Covid-19 even where tests hadn’t confirmed the diagnosis (China, briefly).
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The data are terrible and far too little testing has been done. Some things have improved, with confidence growing about the uncontrolled rate of spread and the range of mortality estimates narrowing. The uncertainty isn’t the fault of the epidemiologists.